The Seasonality of U.S. Home Prices
Prices climb fastest in spring and go flat in winter. The calendar pattern of home prices, measured.
Key findings
- Home prices have a clear season. Over 2015 to 2025, March saw the fastest average month-over-month rise at +1.4%, while December was weakest at +0.0%.
- The spring house-hunting months (March through June) carry most of the yearly gain, rising 4.7% on average combined.
- The late-fall and winter months (November through January) are nearly flat, adding 0.3% combined.
- This uses the not-seasonally-adjusted index, which is exactly how the calendar pattern shows up; it measures price change, not dollar levels.
Anyone who has shopped for a home knows spring is busy, and prices follow. This measures the average month-over-month change in the FHFA purchase-only index, not seasonally adjusted, for each calendar month across 2015 to 2025. The pattern is strong and consistent: prices climb fastest in spring and early summer and go nearly flat in late fall and winter. It is why the government publishes a seasonally adjusted series at all. An index tracks price change relative to a base period, not dollar price levels.
Seasonal pattern, 2015 to 2025
Average month-over-month price change by calendar month
| Category | Average month-over-month change |
|---|---|
| January | 0.22% |
| February | 1.18% |
| March | 1.42% |
| April | 1.3% |
| May | 1.17% |
| June | 0.77% |
| July | 0.33% |
| August | 0.07% |
| September | 0.14% |
| October | 0.11% |
| November | 0.12% |
| December | -0.03% |
By month
| Month | Avg month-over-month |
|---|---|
| January | +0.2% |
| February | +1.2% |
| March | +1.4% |
| April | +1.3% |
| May | +1.2% |
| June | +0.8% |
| July | +0.3% |
| August | +0.1% |
| September | +0.1% |
| October | +0.1% |
| November | +0.1% |
| December | +0.0% |
FHFA purchase-only U.S. index, average not-seasonally-adjusted month-over-month change by calendar month, 2015 to 2025. Index percent change, not dollar prices.
Data Sources & Methodology
The figures on this page are computed directly from the source data below. Narrative text accompanies the figures but never generates them.
FHFA House Price Index (HPI)
- Publisher:
- Federal Housing Finance Agency
- Vintage:
- 2015 to 2025
- Access:
- BigQuery
- Cadence:
- monthly
The Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index measures changes in single-family home values using a repeat-sales method on mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The master file carries every published series: monthly indexes for the nation and the nine Census divisions, and quarterly indexes for states and metropolitan areas, in multiple index types, back to the 1970s.
The HPI is a weighted repeat-sales index: it tracks price changes on the same homes over time using mortgage transactions acquired or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Values are index levels relative to a base period, not dollar prices.
Monthly indexes are published for the United States and the nine Census divisions; state and metropolitan-area indexes are quarterly. Both seasonally adjusted and not-seasonally-adjusted series are provided.
Price growth is computed as the percent change in the index between two periods. Because it is an index, comparisons are about rate of change, not absolute price levels between places.
- The purchase-only and standard indexes cover only homes with Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgages, so cash sales and homes financed outside the enterprises are not included.
- It is an index of price change, not a measure of dollar price levels, so two places with the same index are not equally expensive.
- Monthly detail exists only for the nation and Census divisions; state and metro series are quarterly.
- Recent periods can be revised as more transactions are reported.
How these figures were produced
- Estimate type:
- Repeat-sales price index (not a count or dollar level)
- Weighting:
- Repeat-sales weighting of enterprise-acquired mortgages
Suggested citation
Federal Housing Finance Agency, House Price Index, 2015 to 2025. Analysis by Matt George, itsmattgeorge.com. Retrieved 2026-10-24.